Hot and cold seasons in the housing market

Ngai, L. Rachel and Tenreyro, Silvana ORCID: 0000-0002-9816-7452 (2014) Hot and cold seasons in the housing market. American Economic Review, 104 (12). pp. 3991-4026. ISSN 0002-8282

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Abstract

Every year housing markets in the United Kingdom and the United States experience systematic above-trend increases in prices and transactions during the spring and summer ("hot season") and below-trend falls during the autumn and winter ("cold season"). House price seasonality poses a challenge to existing housing models. We propose a search-and-matching model with thick-market effects. In thick markets, the quality of matches increases, rising buyers' willingness to pay and sellers' desire to transact. A small, deterministic driver of seasonality can be amplified and revealed as deterministic seasonality in transactions and prices, quantitatively mimicking seasonal fluctuations in UK and US markets.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/index.php
Additional Information:	© 2014 American Economic Association
Divisions:	Economics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification:	C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory > C78 - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R21 - Housing Demand R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R3 - Production Analysis and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets
Date Deposited:	22 Sep 2015 09:32
Last Modified:	05 Apr 2024 03:06
Projects:	240852
Funders:	European Research Council, Bank of Spain, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, Fondation Banque de France
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/63659

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