Items where Author is "Watkins, Nicholas W."

Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588, Calel, Raphael, Chapman, Sandra C., Chechkin, Aleksei, Klages, Rainer and Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X (2024) The challenge of non-Markovian energy balance models in climate. Chaos, 34 (7). ISSN 1054-1500

Allanson, Oliver, Ma, Donglai, Osmane, Adnane, Albert, Jay M., Bortnik, Jacob, Watt, Clare E.J., Chapman, Sandra C., Spencer, Joseph, Ratliff, Daniel J., Meredith, Nigel P., Elsden, Thomas, Neukirch, Thomas, Hartley, David P., Black, Rachel, Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 and Elvidge, Sean (2024) The challenge to understand the zoo of particle transport regimes during resonant wave-particle interactions for given survey-mode wave spectra. Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences, 11. ISSN 2296-987X

Meng, X., Verkhoglyadova, O. P., Chapman, S. C., Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 and Cafolla, M. (2024) Statistical characteristics of total electron content intensifications on global ionospheric maps. Space Weather, 22 (1). ISSN 1542-7390

Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588, Chapman, Sandra C., Chechkin, Aleksei, Ford, Ian, Klages, Rainer and Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X (2021) On generalized Langevin dynamics and the modelling of global mean temperature. In: Braha, Dan, de Aguiar, Marcus A., Gershenson, Carlos, Morales, Alfredo J., Kaufman, Les, Naumova, Elena N., Minai, Ali A. and Bar-Yam, Yaneer, (eds.) Unifying Themes in Complex Systems X: Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Complex Systems. Springer Proceedings in Complexity. Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 433 - 441. ISBN 9783030673178

McIntosh, Scott W., Chapman, Sandra, Leamon, Robert J., Egeland, Ricky and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2020) Overlapping magnetic activity cycles and the sunspot number: forecasting sunspot cycle 25 amplitude. Solar Physics, 295 (12). ISSN 0038-0938

Calel, Raphael, Chapman, S.C., Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2020) Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change. Nature Communications, 11 (1). ISSN 2041-1723

Franzke, Christian L.E., Barbosa, Susana, Blender, Richard, Fredriksen, Hege-Beate, Laepple, Thomas, Lambert, Fabrice, Nilsen, Tine, Rypdal, Kristoffer, Rypdal, Martin, Scotto, Manuel, Vannitsem, Stéphane, Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588, Yang, Lichao and Yuan, Naiming (2020) The structure of climate variability across scales. Reviews of Geophysics, 58 (2). ISSN 8755-1209

Leamon, Robert J., McIntosh, Scott W., Chapman, Sandra C. and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2020) Timing terminators: forecasting sunspot cycle 25 onset. Solar Physics, 295 (2). ISSN 0038-0938

Chapman, S.C., Horne, R.B and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2020) Using the aa index over the last 14 solar cycles to characterize extreme Geomagnetic activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (3). ISSN 0094-8276

Palyulin, Vladimir, Blackburn, George, Lomholt, Michael A, Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588, Metzler, Ralf, Kleges, Rainer and Chechkin, Aleksei V (2019) First passage and first hitting times of Lévy flights and Lévy walks. New Journal of Physics, 21 (10). ISSN 1367-2630

Chapman, S.C., Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 and Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X (2019) Warming trends in summer heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (3). pp. 1634-1640. ISSN 0094-8276

Shepherd, Theodore G., Boyd, Emily, Calel, Raphael A., Chapman, Sandra C., Dessai, Suraje, Dima-West, Ioana M., Fowler, Hayley J., James, Rachel, Maraun, Douglas, Martius, Olivia, Senior, Catherine A., Sobel, Adam H., Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X, Tett, Simon F. B., Trenberth, Kevin E., van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M., Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588, Wilby, Robert L. and Zenghelis, Dimitri A. (2018) Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change. ISSN 0165-0009

Tindale, E., Chapman, S.C., Moloney, N.R. and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2018) The dependence of solar wind burst size on burst duration and its invariance across solar cycles 23 and 24. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 123 (9). pp. 7196-7210. ISSN 2169-9380

Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2018) (A)phantasia and severely deficient autobiographical memory: scientific and personal perspectives. Cortex, 105. pp. 41-52. ISSN 0010-9452

Chapman, S. C., Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 and Tindale, E. (2018) Reproducible aspects of the climate of space weather over the last five solar cycles. Space Weather, 16 (8). pp. 1128-1142. ISSN 1542-7390

Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2017) On the continuing relevance of Mandelbrot's non-ergodic fractional renewal models of 1963 to 1967. European Physical Journal B, 90 (241). ISSN 1434-6028

Graves, Timothy, Gramacy, Robert, Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 and Franzke, Christian (2017) A brief history of long memory: Hurst, Mandelbrot and the road to ARFIMA, 1951–1980. Entropy, 19 (9). p. 437. ISSN 1099-4300

Graves, Timothy, Franzke, Christian L.E., Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588, Gramacy, Robert B. and Tindale, Elizabeth (2017) Systematic inference of the long-range dependence and heavy-tail distribution parameters of ARFIMA models. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 473. pp. 60-71. ISSN 0378-4371

Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588, Pruessner, Gunnar, Chapman, Sandra C., Crosby, Norma B. and Jensen, Henrik J. (2016) 25 years of self-organized criticality: concepts and controversies. Space Science Reviews, 198 (1). pp. 3-44. ISSN 0038-6308

Hush, P., Chapman, S. C., Dunlop, M. W. and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2015) Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (21). pp. 9197-9202. ISSN 0094-8276

Graves, T., Gramacy, R. B., Franzke, C. L. E. and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2015) Efficient Bayesian inference for natural time series using ARFIMA processes. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 22 (6). pp. 679-700. ISSN 1607-7946

Chapman, Sandra C., Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2015) Limits to the quantification of local climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (9). 094018. ISSN 1748-9326

Franzke, Christian L. E., Osprey, Scott M., Davini, Paolo and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2015) A dynamical systems explanation of the Hurst effect and atmospheric low-frequency variability. Scientific Reports, 5 (9068). ISSN 2045-2322

Chapman, S. C., Dendy, R. O., Todd, T. N., Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588, Webster, A. J., Calderoni, Francesco and Morris, Jill (2014) Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET. Physics of Plasmas, 21 (062302). ISSN 1070-664X

Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X, Chapman, Sandra C. and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2013) Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). ISSN 1748-9326

Chapman, Sandra C., Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2013) On estimating local long-term climate trends. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 371 (1991). ISSN 1364-503X

Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2013) Bunched black (and grouped grey) swans: dissipative and non-dissipative models of correlated extreme fluctuations in complex geosystems. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (2). pp. 402-410. ISSN 0094-8276

Capparelli, V., Franzke, C., Vecchio, A., Freeman, M. P., Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 and Carbone, V. (2013) A spatiotemporal analysis of US station temperature trends over the last century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (14). pp. 7427-7434. ISSN 2169-897X