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Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change

Calel, Raphael, Chapman, S.C., Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X and Watkins, Nicholas W. ORCID: 0000-0003-4484-6588 (2020) Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change. Nature Communications, 11 (1). ISSN 2041-1723

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Identification Number: 10.1038/s41467-020-18797-8


A number of influential assessments of the economic cost of climate change rely on just a small number of coupled climate–economy models. A central feature of these assessments is their accounting of the economic cost of epistemic uncertainty—that part of our uncertainty stemming from our inability to precisely estimate key model parameters, such as the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. However, these models fail to account for the cost of aleatory uncertainty—the irreducible uncertainty that remains even when the true parameter values are known. We show how to account for this second source of uncertainty in a physically well-founded and tractable way, and we demonstrate that even modest variability implies trillions of dollars of previously unaccounted for economic damages.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2020 The Authors
Divisions: Grantham Research Institute
Geography & Environment
Centre for Analysis of Time Series
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 24 Sep 2020 08:30
Last Modified: 28 Jun 2024 01:27

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