MacWilliams, Matthew C. (2015) Forecasting models using Facebook data can be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than polling. USApp - American Politics and Policy Blog (23 Dec 2015). Website.
|
PDF
Download (46kB) | Preview |
Abstract
The aftermath of the last presidential election saw election forecasting models called into question when only 7 out of 12 national models predicted that Obama would remain in the White House. Matthew C. MacWilliams proposes a new method of election prediction – using Facebook data in combination with electoral fundamentals. Applying this method to 16 of the 2014 Senate’s most close-run elections, the new model’s predictions were more accurate than five out of six other major forecasting models.
| Item Type: | Online resource (Website) |
|---|---|
| Official URL: | http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/ |
| Additional Information: | © 2015 The Author(s) CC BY-NC 3.0 |
| Divisions: | LSE |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races J Political Science > JK Political institutions (United States) T Technology > T Technology (General) |
| Date Deposited: | 08 May 2017 11:50 |
| Last Modified: | 11 Dec 2024 14:36 |
| URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/75917 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
Download Statistics
Download Statistics