Prediction using panel data regression with spatial random effects

Fingleton, Bernard (2008) Prediction using panel data regression with spatial random effects. SERC Discussion Papers (SERCDP0007). Spatial Economics Research Centre (SERC), London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Abstract

This paper considers some of the issues and difficulties relating to the use of spatial panel data regression in prediction, illustrated by the effects of mass immigration on wages and income levels in local authority areas of Great Britain. Motivated by contemporary urban economics theory, and using recent advances in spatial econometrics, the panel regression has wages dependent on employment density and the efficiency of the labour force. There are two types of spatial interaction, a spatial lag of wages, and an autoregressive process for error components. The estimates suggest that increased employment densities will increase wage levels, but wages may fall if migrants are under-qualified. This uncertainty highlights the fact that ex ante forecasting should be used with great caution as a basis for policy decisions.

Item Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL:	http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/SERC/publication...
Additional Information:	© 2008 Bernard Fingleton
Divisions:	Spatial Economics Research Centre
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Date Deposited:	23 Mar 2011 12:58
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2024 18:54
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/33150

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