Uncertainty and investment dynamics

Van Reenen, John ORCID: 0000-0001-9153-2907, Bloom, Nick and Bond, Steve (2006) Uncertainty and investment dynamics. . London School of Economics and Political Science. Centre for Economic Performance, London, UK.

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Abstract

This paper shows that, with (partial) irreversibility, higher uncertainty reduces the impact effect of demand shocks on investment. Uncertainty increases real option values making firms more cautious when investing or disinvesting. This is confirmed both numerically for a model with a rich mix of adjustment costs, time-varying uncertainty, and aggregation over investment decisions and time, and also empirically for a panel of manufacturing firms. These cautionary effects of uncertainty are large - going from the lower quartile to the upper quartile of the uncertainty distribution typically halves the first year investment response to demand shocks. This implies the responsiveness of firms to any given policy stimulus may be much lower in periods of high uncertainty, such as after major shocks like OPEC I and 9/11.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	http://cep.lse.ac.uk
Additional Information:	© 2006 Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
Divisions:	Centre for Economic Performance Economics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification:	C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C23 - Models with Panel Data E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E22 - Capital; Investment (including Inventories); Capacity D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty D - Microeconomics > D9 - Intertemporal Choice and Growth > D92 - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
Date Deposited:	13 Aug 2007
Last Modified:	01 Nov 2024 04:52
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/2645

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