Disrupting drug markets: the effects of crackdowns on rogue opioid suppliers

Soliman, Adam (2025) Disrupting drug markets: the effects of crackdowns on rogue opioid suppliers. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 17 (4). 165 - 191. ISSN 1945-7731

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Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of doctor crackdowns on the quantity demanded of prescription opioids, across-market substitution, and across-product substitution. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the timing and location of administrative actions, I find cracking down on a single doctor decreases county-level opioid dispensing by 10 percent. This decline persists across space and grows over time. Additionally, significant heroin substitution occurs, yet overall overdose mortality decreases. These results highlight a critical tradeoff policymakers should consider with targeted crackdowns: Reductions in the flow of new users must be balanced against the harm that arises when existing users substitute to more dangerous drugs.

Item Type:	Article
Divisions:	LSE
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
JEL classification:	I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I11 - Analysis of Health Care Markets I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I12 - Health Production: Nutrition, Mortality, Morbidity, Suicide, Substance Abuse and Addiction, Disability, and Economic Behavior I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health K - Law and Economics > K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior > K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
Date Deposited:	07 Nov 2025 09:18
Last Modified:	07 Nov 2025 09:18
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/130081

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