Measuring how much judges matter for case outcomes

Copus, Ryan and Hübert, Ryan ORCID: 0000-0003-1556-4127 (2025) Measuring how much judges matter for case outcomes. Journal of Law and Courts. ISSN 2164-6570

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Abstract

A large empirical literature examines how judges’ traits affect how cases get resolved. This literature has led many to conclude that judges matter for case outcomes. But how much do they matter? Existing empirical findings understate the true extent of judicial influence over case outcomes since standard estimation techniques hide some disagreement among judges. We devise a machine learning method to reveal additional sources of disagreement. Applying this method to the Ninth Circuit, we estimate that at least 38% of cases could be decided differently based solely on the panel they were assigned to.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Methodology
Subjects:	K Law
Date Deposited:	14 Jul 2025 12:00
Last Modified:	26 Aug 2025 23:23
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/128808

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