Pradhan, Manoj and Goodhart, C. A. E.
(2024)
Fiscal risks in an ageing world and the implications for monetary policy.
Financial and Economic Review, 23 (4).
pp. 69-79.
ISSN 2415-928X
Full text not available from this repository.
Abstract
Ageing societies are likely to face rapidly changing structural macroeconomic trends, with fiscal balances likely to worsen over time. It is widely acknowledged by forecasters and financial markets that debt-to-GDP ratios are tending to rise over t ime, but there are signs that the size and persistence of future deficits and debts may be underestimated. This underestimation comes from three sources: i) incorrect consideration of the medical complications of older cohorts; ii) a demography-driven rise in inflation, real interest rates and interest expenses; and iii) misalignment of f iscal and monetary policy incentives in an inflationary environment. We argue that a new era is starting, when we will have to face complicated relations between demography, and fiscal and monetary policy.
| Item Type: |
Article
|
| Additional Information: |
© 2024 |
| Divisions: |
Financial Markets Group |
| Subjects: |
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
| JEL classification: |
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E20 - General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E40 - General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E50 - General
I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I11 - Analysis of Health Care Markets
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J14 - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped
N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations > N10 - General, International, or Comparative
N - Economic History > N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Income, and Wealth > N30 - Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Income and Wealth: General, International, or Comparative (Migration)
P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P10 - General |
| Date Deposited: |
06 Jan 2025 15:18 |
| Last Modified: |
06 Jan 2025 15:33 |
| URI: |
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/126585 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
