Cookies?
Library Header Image
LSE Research Online LSE Library Services

Forecasting models using Facebook data can be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than polling.

MacWilliams, Matthew C. (2015) Forecasting models using Facebook data can be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than polling. USApp - American Politics and Policy Blog (23 Dec 2015). Blog Entry.

[img]
Preview
PDF
Download (46kB) | Preview

Abstract

The aftermath of the last presidential election saw election forecasting models called into question when only 7 out of 12 national models predicted that Obama would remain in the White House. Matthew C. MacWilliams proposes a new method of election prediction – using Facebook data in combination with electoral fundamentals. Applying this method to 16 of the 2014 Senate’s most close-run elections, the new model’s predictions were more accurate than five out of six other major forecasting models.

Item Type: Online resource (Blog Entry)
Official URL: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/
Additional Information: © 2015 The Author(s) CC BY-NC 3.0; Online
Divisions: LSE
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races
J Political Science > JK Political institutions (United States)
T Technology > T Technology (General)
Sets: Collections > LSE American Politics and Policy (USAPP) Blog
Date Deposited: 08 May 2017 11:50
Last Modified: 05 Jun 2019 23:21
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/75917

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics