Predictive modeling the past

Paker, Meredith, Stephenson, Judy ORCID: 0000-0003-4972-4096 and Wallis, Patrick ORCID: 0000-0003-1434-515X (2025) Predictive modeling the past. Economic History Working Papers (379). London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Abstract

Understanding long-run economic growth requires reliable historical data, yet the vast majority of long-run economic time series are drawn from incomplete records with significant temporal and geographic gaps. Conventional solutions to these gaps rely on linear regressions that risk bias or overfitting when data are scarce. We introduce “past predictive modeling,” a framework that leverages machine learning and out-of-sample predictive modeling techniques to reconstruct representative historical time series from scarce data. Validating our approach using nominal wage data from England, 1300-1900, we show that this new method leads to more accurate and generalizable estimates, with bootstrapped standard errors 72% lower than benchmark linear regressions. Beyond just bettering accuracy, these improved wage estimates for England yield new insights into the impact of the Black Death on inequality, the economic geography of pre-industrial growth, and productivity over the long-run.

Item Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL:	https://www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-History/Working-Pap...
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Authors
Divisions:	Economic History
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification:	J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J3 - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs > J31 - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials by Skill, Training, Occupation, etc. C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications N - Economic History > N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Income, and Wealth > N33 - Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Income and Wealth: Europe: Pre-1913 N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations > N13 - Europe: Pre-1913 N - Economic History > N6 - Manufacturing and Construction > N63 - Europe: Pre-1913
Date Deposited:	17 Jul 2025 09:00
Last Modified:	17 Jul 2025 09:00
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/128852

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