The past and future of work: how history can inform the age of automation

Schneider, Benjamin and Vipond, Hillary (2023) The past and future of work: how history can inform the age of automation. Economic History Working Papers (354). London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Abstract

Debates about the future of work frequently reference past instances of transformative innovation to explain how automation and artificial intelligence could reshape society and the economy. However, historians have rarely engaged with these discussions, and most economists and technologists have limited knowledge of past experiences of technological change. In this paper we show that a deeper understanding of history can expand our understanding of possibilities and pitfalls for employment in the future. We open by demonstrating that evidence from historical events has been used to inform responses to present-day challenges. We argue that history provides the only way to analyze the long-term impacts of technological change, and that the scale of the First Industrial Revolution may make it the only precedent for emerging transformations. Next, we present an overview of the current debates around the potential effects of impending labour replacing innovation. We then summarize existing historical research on the causes and consequences of technological change and identify areas in which salient historical findings are overlooked. We close by proposing further research into past technological shocks that can enhance our vision of an automated future.

Item Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL:	https://www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-History/Working-Pap...
Additional Information:	© 2023 The Authors
Divisions:	Economic History
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD2329 Industrialization D History General and Old World > D History (General) > D204 Modern History
JEL classification:	J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J23 - Employment Determination; Job Creation; Demand for Labor; Self-Employment J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies > J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J8 - Labor Standards: National and International > J81 - Working Conditions N - Economic History > N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Income, and Wealth > N31 - Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Income and Wealth: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913 N - Economic History > N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Income, and Wealth > N33 - Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Income and Wealth: Europe: Pre-1913 N - Economic History > N7 - Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services > N71 - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913 N - Economic History > N7 - Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services > N73 - Europe: Pre-1913 O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
Date Deposited:	30 May 2023 14:42
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2024 19:48
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/119282

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