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Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting

Hanretty, Chris, Lauderdale, Ben and Vivyan, Nick (2016) Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting. Electoral Studies, 41. pp. 239-243. ISSN 0261-3794

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Identification Number: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019


We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Divisions: Methodology
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Sets: Departments > Methodology
Date Deposited: 03 Feb 2016 09:47
Last Modified: 20 Jun 2021 02:16

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