The future is history: restorative nationalism and conflict in post-Napoleonic Europe

Cederman, Lars-Erik, Pengl, Yannick I., Girardin, Luc and Muller-Crepon, Carl ORCID: 0000-0001-8536-7861 (2024) The future is history: restorative nationalism and conflict in post-Napoleonic Europe. International Organization, 78 (2). 259 - 292. ISSN 0020-8183

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Abstract

As illustrated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the recent revival of nationalism has triggered a threatening return of revisionist conflict. While the literature on nationalism shows how nationalist narratives are socially constructed, much less is known about their real-world consequences. Taking nationalist narratives seriously, we study how past “golden ages” affect territorial claims and conflict in post-Napoleonic Europe. We expect nationalists to be more likely to mobilize and initiate conflict if they can contrast the status quo to a historical polity with supposedly greater national unity and/or independence. Using data on European state borders going back to 1100, combined with spatial data covering ethnic settlement areas during the past two centuries, we find that the availability of plausible golden ages increases the risk of both domestic and interstate conflict. These findings suggest that specific historical legacies make some modern nationalisms more consequential than others.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/internatio...
Additional Information:	© 2024 The Authors
Divisions:	Government
Subjects:	J Political Science
Date Deposited:	28 Mar 2024 14:18
Last Modified:	18 Nov 2024 21:06
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/122531

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