Making confident decisions with model ensembles

Roussos, Joe, Bradley, Richard ORCID: 0000-0003-2184-7844 and Frigg, Roman ORCID: 0000-0003-0812-0907 (2021) Making confident decisions with model ensembles. Philosophy of Science, 88 (3). pp. 439-460. ISSN 0031-8248

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Abstract

Many policy decisions take input from collections of scientific models. Such decisions face significant and often poorly understood uncertainty. We rework the so-called confidence approach to tackle decision-making under severe uncertainty with multiple models, and we illustrate the approach with a case study: insurance pricing using hurricane models. The confidence approach has important consequences for this case and offers a powerful framework for a wide class of problems. We end by discussing different ways in which model ensembles can feed information into the approach, appropriate to different collections of models.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/toc/phos/current
Additional Information:	© 2020 by the Philosophy of Science
Divisions:	Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > B Philosophy (General) B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BC Logic
Date Deposited:	26 Mar 2020 12:09
Last Modified:	16 Apr 2024 22:39
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/103844

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