Monetary policy transmission in an open economy:new data and evidence from the United Kingdom

Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, Thwaites, Gregory and Vicondoa, Alejandro (2016) Monetary policy transmission in an open economy:new data and evidence from the United Kingdom. CFM discussion paper series (CFM-DP2016-12). Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.

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Abstract

This paper constructs a new series of monetary policy surprises for the United Kingdom and estimates their effects on macroeconomic and financial variables, employing a high-frequency identification procedure. First, using local projections methods, we find that monetary policy has persistent effects on real interest rates and breakeven inflation. Second, employing our series of surprises as an instrument in a SVAR, we show that monetary policy affects economic activity, prices, the exchange rate, exports, and imports. Finally, we implement a test of overidentifying restrictions, which exploits the availability of the narrative series of monetary policy shocks computed by Cloyne and Huertgen (2014), and find no evidence that either set of shocks contains any ‘endogenous’ response to macroeconomic variables.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
Additional Information:	© 2016 The Authors
Divisions:	Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification:	E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E43 - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects) E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
Date Deposited:	13 Dec 2017 09:55
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2024 19:23
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/86235

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