Effects of financial crises on productivity, capital and employment

Oulton, Nicholas and Sebastiá-Barriel, María (2017) Effects of financial crises on productivity, capital and employment. Review of Income and Wealth. ISSN 0034-6586

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Abstract

We examine the hypothesis that capacity can be permanently damaged by financial, particularly banking, crises. A model which allows a financial crisis to have both a short-run effect on the growth rate of labor productivity and a long-run effect on its level is estimated on 61 countries over 1954–2010. A banking crisis as defined by Reinhart and Rogoff reduces the long-run level of GDP per worker, and also that of capital per worker, by on average 1.1 percent, for each year that the crisis lasts; it also reduces the TFP level by 0.8%. The long run, negative effect on the level of GDP per capita, 1.8 percent, is substantially larger. So there is also a hit to employment. The effects on labor productivity, capital and TFP are larger in developing than in developed countries; the opposite is the case for employment.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(IS...
Additional Information:	© 2016 International Association for Research in Income and Wealth
Divisions:	Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification:	E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E23 - Production E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
Date Deposited:	07 Dec 2016 12:08
Last Modified:	18 Jan 2024 05:45
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/68541

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