Hafner-Burton, Emilie M., Hyde, Susan D. and Jablonski, Ryan S. 
ORCID: 0000-0002-7344-6738
(2018)
Surviving elections: election violence, incumbent victory, and post-election repercussions.
British Journal of Political Science, 48 (2).
459 - 488.
ISSN 0007-1234
Abstract
It is often assumed that government-sponsored election violence increases the probability that incumbent leaders remain in power. Using cross-national data, we show that election violence increases the probability of incumbent victory, but can generate risky post-election dynamics. These differences in the consequences of election violence reflect changes in the strategic setting over the course of the election cycle. In the pre-election period, anti-incumbent collective action tends to be focused on the election itself, either through voter mobilization or opposition-organized election boycotts. In the post-election period, by contrast, when a favorable electoral outcome is no longer a possibility, anti-government collective action more often takes the form of mass political protest, which in turn can lead to costly repercussions for incumbent leaders.
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