Adrian, Tobias and Shin, Hyun Song (2013) Procyclical leverage and value-at-risk. Systemic Risk Centre Discussion Papers (1). Systemic Risk Centre, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
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Abstract
The availability of credit varies over the business cycle through shifts in the leverage of financial intermediaries. Empirically, we find that intermediary leverage is negatively aligned with the banks’ value-at-risk (VaR). Motivated by the evidence, we explore a contracting model that captures the observed features. Under general conditions on the outcome distribution given by Extreme Value Theory (EVT), intermediaries maintain a constant probability of default to shifts in the outcome distribution, implying substantial deleveraging during downturns. For some parameter values, we can solve the model explicitly, thereby endogenizing the VaR threshold probability from the contracting problem.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Discussion Paper) |
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| Official URL: | http://www.systemicrisk.ac.uk/ |
| Additional Information: | © 2013 The Authors |
| Divisions: | Systemic Risk Centre |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
| JEL classification: | G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G32 - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Feb 2015 10:17 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Sep 2024 20:26 |
| Projects: | ES/K002309/1 |
| Funders: | Economic and Social Research Council |
| URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/60972 |
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