Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices

Frigg, Roman ORCID: 0000-0003-0812-0907, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices. Philosophy of Science, 81 (1). 31 - 59. ISSN 0031-8248

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Abstract

The sensitive dependence on initial conditions (SDIC) associated with nonlinear models imposes limitations on the models’ predictive power. We draw attention to an additional limitation than has been underappreciated, namely, structural model error (SME). A model has SME if the model dynamics differ from the dynamics in the target system. If a nonlinear model has only the slightest SME, then its ability to generate decision-relevant predictions is compromised. Given a perfect model, we can take the effects of SDIC into account by substituting probabilistic predictions for point predictions. This route is foreclosed in the case of SME, which puts us in a worse epistemic situation than SDIC.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/journals/journal...
Additional Information:	© 2014 Philosophy of Science Association. Published by University of Chicago Press
Divisions:	Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method Statistics CPNSS Centre for Analysis of Time Series
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > B Philosophy (General) G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited:	09 Dec 2013 11:22
Last Modified:	12 Dec 2024 00:34
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/54817

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