How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?

Agnello, Luca, Castro, Vítor and Sousa, Ricardo J. (2012) How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices? Journal of Macroeconomics, 34 (3). pp. 874-890. ISSN 0164-0704

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Abstract

We assess the response of fiscal policy to developments in asset markets in the US. We estimate fiscal policy rules augmented with aggregate wealth, wealth composition (i.e. financial and housing wealth) and asset prices (i.e. stock and housing prices) using two nonlinear specifications that rely on a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) and a Markov-Switching (MS) model and show that they outperform the linear framework that is based on a fully simultaneous system approach. In particular, the smooth transition regression model shows that primary spending and fiscal balance are adjusted in a nonlinear fashion to both wealth and price effects, while the Markov-switching framework highlights the importance of tax cuts to offset the decline in wealth during periods of major financial distress. Overall, our results provide evidence of a countercyclical policy and a vigilant track of wealth developments by fiscal authorities.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-macroe...
Additional Information:	© 2012 Elsevier
Divisions:	Financial Markets Group
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
JEL classification:	E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects) E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy Formation, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; Public Expenditures, Investment, and Finance; Taxation O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O16 - Economic Development: Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
Date Deposited:	06 Jun 2012 15:47
Last Modified:	15 Feb 2024 04:03
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/44223

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