Ranger, Nicola, Gohar, L. K., Lowe, J. A., Raper, S. C. B., Bowen, Alex and Ward, Robert E. T. (2012) Is it possible to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C? Climatic Change, 111 (3-4). pp. 973-981. ISSN 0165-0009
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
This study explores the feasibility of limiting increases in global temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. A probabilistic simple climate model is used to identify emissions paths that offer at least a 50% chance of achieving this goal. We conclude that it is more likely than not that warming would exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, under plausible mitigation scenarios. We have identified three criteria of emissions paths that could meet the 1.5°C goal with a temporary overshoot of no more than 50 years: early and strong reductions in emissions, with global emissions peaking in 2015 and falling to at most 44-48 GtCO 2e in 2020; rapid reductions in annual global emissions after 2020 (of at least 3-4% per year); very low annual global emissions by 2100 (less than 2-4 GtCO 2e) and falling to zero (or below) in the 22nd century. The feasibility of these characteristics is uncertain. We conclude that the proposed date of review of the 1.5°C goal, set at 2015, may be too late to achieve the necessary scaling up of emissions cuts to achieve this goal.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Official URL: | http://www.springer.com/earth+sciences+and+geograp... |
| Additional Information: | © 2012 Crown. |
| Divisions: | Grantham Research Institute |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences Q Science > Q Science (General) |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Mar 2012 15:00 |
| Last Modified: | 09 Oct 2024 06:06 |
| URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/42519 |
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