Carruth, A., Hooker, M. and Oswald, A. (1994) Unemployment, oil prices and the real interest rate: evidence from Canada and the UK. CEP Discussion Papers (CEPDP0188). London School of Economics and Political Science. Centre for Economic Performance, London, UK.
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
There is still little agreement about what caused the large movement in unemployment in the industrialized nations in the 1970s and 1980s. This paper constructs a simple model in which the equilibrium rate of unemployment depends upon the real rate of interest and the real price of oil. When confronted with data from Canada and the UK, there is some support for the model''s predictions. Granger-casualty tests and regression results suggest that the real oil price is especially important. If a dynamic model is estimated up to the start of the 1980s, it successfully predicts (out of a sample) the behaviour of unemployment over the ensuing period. Nevertheless, an unexplained secular trend in unemployment is visible in the data.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Discussion Paper) |
|---|---|
| Official URL: | http://cep.lse.ac.uk |
| Additional Information: | © 1994 The Authors |
| Divisions: | Centre for Economic Performance |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor |
| JEL classification: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E43 - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies > J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Aug 2008 15:13 |
| Last Modified: | 15 Sep 2023 22:41 |
| URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/20910 |
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