The impact of central bank announcements on asset prices in real time: testing the efficiency of the Euribor futures market

Rosa, Carlo and Verga, Giovanni (2006) The impact of central bank announcements on asset prices in real time: testing the efficiency of the Euribor futures market. CEPDP (764). Centre of Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK. ISBN 075302070X

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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of European Central Bank communication on the price discovery process in the Euribor futures market using a new tick-by-tick dataset. First, we show that two pieces of news systematically hit financial markets on Governing Council meeting days: the ECB policy rate decision and the explanation of its monetary policy stance. Second, we find that the unexpected component of ECB explanations has a significant and sizeable impact on futures prices. This indicates that the ECB has already acquired some credibility: financial markets seem to believe that it does what it says it will do. Finally, our results suggest that the Euribor futures market is semi-strong form informational efficient.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	http://cep.lse.ac.uk
Additional Information:	© 2006 the authors
Divisions:	Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification:	E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)
Date Deposited:	21 Jul 2008 15:22
Last Modified:	13 Sep 2024 19:59
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/19777

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