Model evaluation and causality testing in short panels: the case of infrastructure provision and population growth in the Brazilian Amazon

Weinhold, Diana ORCID: 0000-0002-0002-9378 and Reis, Eustaquio J. (2001) Model evaluation and causality testing in short panels: the case of infrastructure provision and population growth in the Brazilian Amazon. Journal of Regional Science, 41 (4). pp. 639-657. ISSN 0022-4146

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Abstract

In this paper we examine the relationship between infrastructure growth and population growth in the Amazon using a panel of 293 municipalities over the period from 1975 to 1985. Contemporaneous cross-section analysis confirms a strong positive correlation between infrastructure and urban population but does not indicate direction of causality. Thus, we employ a modified form of the traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short time series that we have available. Based on out-of-sample forecasting tests we conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that growing urban populations lead to more infrastructure development, rather than vice versa.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref...
Additional Information:	© 2001 Blackwell Publishing
Divisions:	International Development
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Date Deposited:	19 Nov 2008 10:06
Last Modified:	01 Nov 2024 04:16
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/18423

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