Growth experiences and trust in government

Besley, Timothy ORCID: 0000-0002-8923-6372, Dann, Chris and Dray, Sacha (2025) Growth experiences and trust in government. Quarterly Journal of Economics. ISSN 0033-5533 (In Press)

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Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and trust in government using variation in GDP growth experienced over a lifetime since birth. We assemble a newly harmonized global dataset across eleven major opinion surveys, comprising 3.3 million respondents in 166 countries since 1990. Exploiting cohort-level variation, we find that individuals who experience higher GDP growth are more prone to trust their governments, with larger effects found in democracies. Higher growth experiences are also associated with improved perceptions of government performance and living standards. We find no similar channel between growth experience and interpersonal trust. Second, more recent growth experiences appear to matter most for trust in government, with no detectable effect of growth experienced during one’s formative years, closer to birth or before birth. Third, we find evidence of a “trust paradox” whereby average trust in government is lower in democracies than in autocracies. Our results are robust to a range of falsification exercises, robustness checks and single-country evidence using the American National Election Studies and the Swiss Household Panel.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Economics
Subjects:	J Political Science H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Date Deposited:	29 Sep 2025 09:30
Last Modified:	16 Oct 2025 11:48
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/129614

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