Green party entry and conservative backlash: evidence from Germany

Arend, Tom, Ellger, Fabio and Valentim, Antonio ORCID: 0000-0001-8937-9181 (2025) Green party entry and conservative backlash: evidence from Germany. British Journal of Political Science, 55. ISSN 0007-1234

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Abstract

How do voters react to new political actors? Recent research suggests that radical right party success can provoke electoral backlash. We argue that such backlash is not exclusive to the radical right but can emerge whenever new political actors disrupt the status quo. With very distinct policy positions and behaviour, Green parties were early disruptors of post-war party systems in Europe. Using first-difference and difference-in-differences designs with voting records from Germany, we show that Green party success provoked a conservative backlash. After the Greens entered state parliaments, the Christian Democrats gained support. Using additional evidence from election surveys, we find that Green party success reinforces feelings of animosity among conservatives, mainly driven by disapproval of the Greens’ behaviour. These results highlight a broader pattern of backlash against new disruptive political actors. Our findings are especially relevant as polarization and party system fragmentation intensify across many established democracies.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Author(s)
Divisions:	European Institute
Subjects:	J Political Science
Date Deposited:	04 Jul 2025 10:15
Last Modified:	31 Oct 2025 01:00
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/128634

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