The train wrecks of modernization: railway construction and separatist mobilization in Europe

Pengl, Yannick I., Muller-Crepon, Carl ORCID: 0000-0001-8536-7861, Valli, Roberto, Cederman, Lars-Erik and Girardin, Luc (2025) The train wrecks of modernization: railway construction and separatist mobilization in Europe. American Political Science Review. ISSN 0003-0554

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Abstract

This paper uses the gradual expansion of the European railway network to investigate how this key technological driver of modernization affected ethnic separatism between 1816 and 1945. Combining new historical data on ethnic settlement areas, conflict, and railway construction, we test how railroads affected separatist conflict and successful secession as well as independence claims among peripheral ethnic groups. Difference-in-differences, event study, and instrumental variable models show that, on average, railway-based modernization increased separatist mobilization and secession. These effects concentrate in countries with small core groups, weak state capacity, and low levels of economic development as well as in large ethnic minority regions. Exploring causal mechanisms, we show how railway networks can facilitate mobilization by increasing the internal connectivity of ethnic regions and hamper it by boosting state reach. Overall, our findings call for a more nuanced understanding of the effects of European modernization on nation building.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Government
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions D History General and Old World > D History (General) > D901 Europe (General)
JEL classification:	N - Economic History > N7 - Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services > N71 - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
Date Deposited:	31 Mar 2025 10:54
Last Modified:	28 Apr 2025 17:03
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/127734

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