Regimes, leaders, and lockdowns: who responded more quickly to the COVID-19 pandemic?

Wehner, Joachim ORCID: 0000-0002-1951-308X and Hallerberg, Mark (2025) Regimes, leaders, and lockdowns: who responded more quickly to the COVID-19 pandemic? Journal of Politics. ISSN 0022-3816 (In Press)

Text (regimes leaders lockdowns_20251018) - Accepted Version Pending embargo until 1 January 2100. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial. Download (8MB)

Abstract

Do institutions or individuals shape policy in a crisis? We examine the timing of COVID-19 lockdowns in relation to regime type and leader characteristics. One view emphasizes institutional structure: were autocracies, with fewer constraints, quicker to lock down? Another highlights individual traits: did the speed of response depend on whether those in charge were doctors, scientists, women, or populists? Using a global dataset for 188 countries of political leaders and health ministers in office at the start of the pandemic, we find that democracies implemented lockdowns faster than autocracies. Individual traits of leaders mattered little, though countries with doctors heading health ministries were less likely to lock down—suggesting their presence may have helped hesitant leaders delay action. Our design addresses concerns about reciprocal causation and sample selection bias and proves robust to potential confounders. Political institutions, more than individual attributes, shaped the initial pandemic response.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Government
Subjects:	J Political Science R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Date Deposited:	06 Feb 2025 10:15
Last Modified:	24 Oct 2025 15:51
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/127190

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