How to deal with exchange rate risk in infrastructure and other long-lived projects

de Castro, Luciano, Frischtak, Claudio and Rodrigues, Arthur (2025) How to deal with exchange rate risk in infrastructure and other long-lived projects. Journal of Public Economic Theory, 27 (1). ISSN 1097-3923

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Abstract

Most developing economies rely on foreign capital to finance their infrastructure needs. These projects are usually structured as long-term (25–35 years) franchises that pay in local currency. If investors evaluate their returns in terms of foreign currency, exchange rate volatility introduces risk that may reduce the level of investment below what would be socially optimal. In this article, we propose a mechanism with very general features that hedges exchange rate fluctuation by adjusting the concession period. Such mechanism does not imply additional costs to the government and could be offered as a zero-cost option to lenders and investors exposed to currency fluctuations. We illustrate the general mechanism with three alternative specifications and use data from a 25-year highway franchise to simulate how they would play out in eight different emerging economies that exhibit diverse exchange rate trajectories. Results show relatively small length adjustments, and suggest the mechanism offers a powerful policy tool to cost-effectively attract vital foreign infrastructure investment for developing countries.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2025 The Author(s)
Divisions:	International Growth Centre
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Date Deposited:	14 Jan 2025 14:36
Last Modified:	14 Jan 2025 14:39
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/126881

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