Experiments about institutions

Callen, Mike ORCID: 0000-0002-8408-1404, Weigel, Jonathan and Yuchtman, Noam ORCID: 0009-0003-6501-9618 (2024) Experiments about institutions. Annual Review of Economics, 16. 105 – 131. ISSN 1941-1383

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Abstract

Institutions are a key determinant of economic growth, but the critical junctures in which institutions can change are not precisely defined. For example, such junctures are often identified ex post, raising several methodological problems: a selection on the outcome of institutional change; an inability to study beliefs, which are central to coordination and thus the process of institutional change; and an inability to conduct experiments to identify causal effects. We argue that critical junctures are identifiable in real time as moments of deep uncertainty about future institutions. Consistent with this conception, the papers reviewed (a) examine changes to institutions, i.e., the fundamental rules of the game; (b) are real-time studies of plausible critical junctures; and (c) use field experiments to achieve causal identification. We also advocate for more systematic measurement of beliefs about future institutions to identify critical junctures as they happen and provide an empirical proof of concept. Such work is urgent given contemporary critical junctures arising from democratic backsliding, state fragility, climate change, and conflicts over the rights of the marginalized.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2024 The Authors
Divisions:	Economics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification:	P - Economic Systems > P0 - General > P00 - General O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O10 - General D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D70 - General
Date Deposited:	13 Mar 2024 18:15
Last Modified:	12 Dec 2024 04:00
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/122367

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