Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics

Chen, Xiao, Huang, Hanwei, Ju, Jiandong, Sun, Ruoyan and Zhang, Jialiang (2022) Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics. CEP Discussion Papers (1860). London School of Economics and Political Science. Centre for Economic Performance, London, UK.

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Abstract

We study infectious diseases using a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased model with endogenous cross-region human mobility. Individuals weigh the risk of infection against economic opportunities when moving across regions. The model predicts that the mobility rate of susceptible individuals declines with a higher infection rate at the destination. With cross-region mobility, a decrease in the transmission rate or an increase in the removal rate of the virus in any region reduces the global basic reproduction number (R0). Global R0 falls between the minimum and maximum of local R0s. A new method of Normalized Hat Algebra is developed to solve the model dynamics. Simulations indicate that a decrease in global R0 does not always imply a lower cumulative infection rate. Local and central governments may prefer different mobility control policies.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/discussion...
Additional Information:	© 2022 The Authors
Divisions:	Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine Q Science > QR Microbiology Q Science > QA Mathematics H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification:	C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods and Programming > C61 - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods and Programming > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies > J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R13 - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
Date Deposited:	16 Jan 2023 17:06
Last Modified:	15 Sep 2023 23:58
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/117907

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