Hasenzagl, Thomas, Pellegrino, Filippo, Reichlin, Lucrezia and Ricco, Giovanni (2022) A model of the Fed's view on inflation. Review of Economics and Statistics, 104 (4). 686 - 704. ISSN 0034-6535
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
We develop a medium-size semistructural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view, often expressed by central banks, that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve, and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well-identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declining since the new millennium and energy prices affecting headline inflation not only via the Phillips curve but also via an independent expectational channel.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Official URL: | https://direct.mit.edu/rest |
| Additional Information: | © 2022 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. |
| Divisions: | Statistics |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HA Statistics |
| Date Deposited: | 20 Jul 2022 14:36 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Nov 2024 19:48 |
| URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/115611 |
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