Assessing a fossil fuels externality with a new neural networks and image optimisation algorithm: the case of atmospheric pollutants as confounders to COVID-19 lethality

Magazzino, Cosimo, Mele, Marco and Schneider, Nicolas (2021) Assessing a fossil fuels externality with a new neural networks and image optimisation algorithm: the case of atmospheric pollutants as confounders to COVID-19 lethality. Epidemiology and Infection, 150. ISSN 0950-2688

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Abstract

This paper demonstrates how the combustion of fossil fuels for transport purpose might cause health implications. Based on an original case study [i.e. the Hubei province in China, the epicentre of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic], we collected data on atmospheric pollutants (PM2.5, PM10 and CO2) and economic growth (GDP), along with daily series on COVID-19 indicators (cases, resuscitations and deaths). Then, we adopted an innovative Machine Learning approach, applying a new image Neural Networks model to investigate the causal relationships among economic, atmospheric and COVID-19 indicators. Empirical findings emphasise that any change in economic activity is found to substantially affect the dynamic levels of PM2.5, PM10 and CO2 which, in turn, generates significant variations in the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and its associated lethality. As a robustness check, the conduction of an optimisation algorithm further corroborates previous results.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiolo...
Additional Information:	© 2021 The Authors
Divisions:	Geography & Environment
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology
Date Deposited:	17 Feb 2022 11:03
Last Modified:	17 Apr 2024 19:45
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/113767

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