The Brexit deterrent? How member state exit shapes public support for the European Union

Hobolt, Sara, Adrian Popa, Sebastian, van der Brug, Wouter and Schmitt, Herrmann (2022) The Brexit deterrent? How member state exit shapes public support for the European Union. European Union Politics, 23 (1). 100 - 119. ISSN 1741-2757

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Abstract

What are the effects on public support for the European Union (EU) when a member state exits? We examine this question in the context of Britain's momentous decision to leave the EU. Combining analyses of the European Election Study 2019 and a unique survey-embedded experiment conducted in all member states, we analyse the effect of Brexit on support for membership among citizens in the EU-27. The experimental evidence shows that while information about the negative economic consequences of Brexit had no significant effect, positive information about Britain's sovereignty significantly increased optimism about leaving the EU. Our findings suggest that Brexit acts as a benchmark for citizens’ evaluations of EU membership across EU-27, and that it may not continue to act as a deterrent in the future.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://journals.sagepub.com/home/eup
Additional Information:	© 2021 The Authors
Divisions:	Government
Subjects:	J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) J Political Science > JZ International relations
Date Deposited:	05 Jul 2021 15:00
Last Modified:	17 Apr 2024 07:09
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/110984

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