Reading political tea leaves: forecasting British general election results

Mongrain, Philippe (2019) Reading political tea leaves: forecasting British general election results. Democratic Audit Blog (14 Feb 2019). Blog Entry.

Text (dit-com-2019-02-14-reading-political-tea-leaves-forecasting-british) - Published Version Download (332kB)

• https://www.democraticaudit.com/2019/02/...

Abstract

Political polling has faced difficulties during recent UK elections. Drawing on methods used for US elections and elsewhere, Philippe Mongrain therefore proposes a new forecasting model, which takes into account the state of the economy, the cost of ruling for the incumbent party, leadership approval ratings and previous election results, and offers some improvements on existing polls for forecasting the vote share of all contending parties.

Item Type:	Online resource (Blog Entry)
Official URL:	https://www.democraticaudit.com/
Additional Information:	© 2019 The Author(s)
Divisions:	LSE
Subjects:	J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Date Deposited:	06 Jan 2021 20:30
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2024 20:26
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/108067

Actions (login required)

View Item