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When creativity strikes: news shocks and business cycle fluctuations

Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia and Hacıoglu Hoke, Sinem (2018) When creativity strikes: news shocks and business cycle fluctuations. CFM Discussion Paper Series (CFM-DP2018-23). Centre For Macroeconomics, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Abstract

We use monthly US utility patent applications to construct an external instrument for identification of technology news shocks in a rich-information VAR. Technology diffuses slowly, and affects total factor productivity in an S-shaped pattern. Responsible for about a tenth of economic fluctuations at business cycle frequencies, the shock elicits a slow, but large and positive response of quantities, and a sluggish contraction in prices, followed by an endogenous easing in the monetary stance. The ensuing economic expansion substantially anticipates any material increase in TFP. Technology news are strongly priced-in in the stock market on impact, but measures of consumers’ expectations take sensibly longer to adjust, consistent with a New-Keynesian framework with nominal rigidities, and featuring informationally constrained agents.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
Additional Information: © 2018 Centre for Macroeconomics
Divisions: Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E22 - Capital; Investment (including Inventories); Capacity
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E23 - Production
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development > O34 - Intellectual Property Rights: National and International Issues
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for Macroeconomics
Date Deposited: 05 Oct 2018 15:41
Last Modified: 10 May 2019 23:22
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/90381

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