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Transitory interest-rate pegs under imperfect credibility

Haberis, Alex, Harrison, Richard and Waldron, Matt (2014) Transitory interest-rate pegs under imperfect credibility. CFM discussion paper series (CFM-DP2014-22). Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.

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Abstract

Housing construction, measured by housing starts, leads GDP in a number of countries. Measured as residential investment, the lead is observed only in the US and Canada; elsewhere, residential investment is coincident. Variants of existing theory, however, predict housing construction lagging GDP. In all countries in the sample, nominal interest rates are low ahead of GDP peaks. Introducing fully-amortizing mortgages and an estimated process for nominal interest rates into a standard model aligns the theory with the observations on starts; one-period loans are insufficient to generate the lead. Longer time to build then makes residential investment cyclically coincident

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
Additional Information: © 2014 The Authors
Divisions: Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E12 - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E20 - General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for Macroeconomics
Date Deposited: 15 Dec 2017 09:13
Last Modified: 20 Feb 2019 03:51
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/86335

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