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Predictable recoveries

Cai, Xiaoming, Den Haan, Wouter J. and Pinder, Jonathan (2015) Predictable recoveries. CFM discussion paper series (CFM-DP2015-20). Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.

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Abstract

Should an unexpected change in real GNP of x% lead to an x% change in the forecasts of future GNP? The answer could be no even if GNP is a random walk. We show that US economic downturns often go together with predictable short-term recoveries and with changes in long-term GNP forecasts that are substantially smaller than the initial drop. But not always! Essential for our results is that GNP forecasts are not based on a univariate time series model, which is not uncommon. Our alternative forecasts are based on a simple multivariate representation of GNPís expenditure components.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
Additional Information: © 2015 The Authors
Divisions: Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E12 - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E24 - Macroeconomics: Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (includes wage indexation)
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E41 - Demand for Money
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies > J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies > J65 - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for Macroeconomics
Date Deposited: 14 Dec 2017 10:37
Last Modified: 20 Feb 2019 03:56
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/86289

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