The diversity of model tuning practices in climate science

Steele, Katie and Werndl, Charlotte (2016) The diversity of model tuning practices in climate science. Philosophy of Science, 83 (5). pp. 1133-1144. ISSN 0031-8248

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Abstract

Many examples of calibration in climate science raise no alarms regarding model reliability. We examine one example and show that, in employing classical hypothesis testing, it involves calibrating a base model against data that are also used to confirm the model. This is counter to the ‘intuitive position’ (in favor of use novelty and against double counting). We argue, however, that aspects of the intuitive position are upheld by some methods, in particular, the general cross-validation method. How cross-validation relates to other prominent classical methods such as the Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion is also discussed.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/toc/phos/current
Additional Information:	© 2016 Philosophy of Science Association
Divisions:	Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method Climate Change Economics and Policy
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited:	16 Feb 2017 13:17
Last Modified:	12 Dec 2024 01:17
Projects:	AH/J006033/1, ES/K006576/1
Funders:	Arts and Humanities Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/69499

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