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In forecasting the 2016 election result, modelers had a good year. Pollsters did not.

Tien, Charles and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2016) In forecasting the 2016 election result, modelers had a good year. Pollsters did not. USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog (15 Dec 2016). Website.

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Abstract

For most commentators and pollsters, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election came as a sharp surprise. Charles Tien and Michael S. Lewis-Beck examine how political science modelers performed in their election predictions compared to poll aggregators and to the national polls. When looking at Hillary Clinton’s share of the two-party vote, they find that political science models were the most accurate in their forecasts. The national polls, by contrast, were largely outside of the margin of error in their predictions for both Clinton and Donald Trump’s share of the popular vote.

Item Type: Online resource (Website)
Official URL: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/
Additional Information: © 2016 The Authors, USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog, The London School of Economics and Political Science © CC BY-NC-ND 3.0; Online
Divisions: LSE
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
J Political Science > JK Political institutions (United States)
Sets: Collections > LSE American Politics and Policy (USAPP) Blog
Date Deposited: 10 Feb 2017 11:07
Last Modified: 02 Jul 2020 23:13
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/69308

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