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Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects

Bateman, Ian, Agarwala, Matthew, Binner, Amy, Coombes, Emma, Day, Brett, Ferrini, Silvia, Fezzi, Carlo, Hutchins, Michael, Lovett, Andrew and Posen, Paulette (2016) Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects. Journal of Environmental Management, 181. pp. 172-184. ISSN 0301-4797

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Identification Number: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.06.020


We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2016 Elsevier Ltd.
Divisions: Geography & Environment
Grantham Research Institute
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Sets: Departments > Geography and Environment
Research centres and groups > Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Date Deposited: 20 Jul 2016 11:16
Last Modified: 20 Sep 2021 03:53
Projects: FP7-ENV-2012-308393-2, FP7-PEOPLE-2011-IOF-302290
Funders: Seventh Framework Programme, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada

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