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Surviving elections: election violence, incumbent victory, and post-election repercussions

Hafner-Burton, Emilie M., Hyde, Susan D. and Jablonski, Ryan S. ORCID: 0000-0002-7344-6738 (2018) Surviving elections: election violence, incumbent victory, and post-election repercussions. British Journal of Political Science, 48 (2). 459 - 488. ISSN 0007-1234

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Identification Number: 10.1017/S000712341600020X


It is often assumed that government-sponsored election violence increases the probability that incumbent leaders remain in power. Using cross-national data, we show that election violence increases the probability of incumbent victory, but can generate risky post-election dynamics. These differences in the consequences of election violence reflect changes in the strategic setting over the course of the election cycle. In the pre-election period, anti-incumbent collective action tends to be focused on the election itself, either through voter mobilization or opposition-organized election boycotts. In the post-election period, by contrast, when a favorable electoral outcome is no longer a possibility, anti-government collective action more often takes the form of mass political protest, which in turn can lead to costly repercussions for incumbent leaders.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2016 Cambridge University Press
Divisions: Government
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Date Deposited: 13 Jan 2016 13:50
Last Modified: 20 Oct 2021 02:22

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