Surviving elections: election violence, incumbent victory, and post-election repercussions

Hafner-Burton, Emilie M., Hyde, Susan D. and Jablonski, Ryan S. (2016) Surviving elections: election violence, incumbent victory, and post-election repercussions. British Journal of Political Science . ISSN 0007-1234 (In Press)

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Abstract

It is often assumed that government-sponsored election violence increases the probability that incumbent leaders remain in power. Using cross-national data, we show that election violence increases the probability of incumbent victory, but can generate risky post-election dynamics. These differences in the consequences of election violence reflect changes in the strategic setting over the course of the election cycle. In the pre-election period, anti-incumbent collective action tends to be focused on the election itself, either through voter mobilization or opposition-organized election boycotts. In the post-election period, by contrast, when a favorable electoral outcome is no longer a possibility, anti-government collective action more often takes the form of mass political protest, which in turn can lead to costly repercussions for incumbent leaders.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJourna...
Additional Information:	© 2016 Cambridge University Press
Library of Congress subject classification:	J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Sets:	Departments > Government
Date Deposited:	13 Jan 2016 13:50
URL:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/64957/

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