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Generalized conditionalization and the Sleeping Beauty problem

Horgan, Terry and Mahtani, Anna (2013) Generalized conditionalization and the Sleeping Beauty problem. Erkenntnis, 78 (2). pp. 333-351. ISSN 0165-0106

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Identification Number: 10.1007/s10670-011-9316-9


We present a new argument for the claim that in the Sleeping Beauty problem, the probability that the coin comes up heads is 1/3. Our argument depends on a principle for the updating of probabilities that we call ‘generalized conditionalization’, and on a species of generalized conditionalization we call ‘synchronic conditionalization on old information’. We set forth a rationale for the legitimacy of generalized conditionalization, and we explain why our new argument for thirdism is immune to two attacks that Pust (Synthese 160:97–101, 2008) has leveled at other arguments for thirdism.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
Divisions: Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > B Philosophy (General)
Sets: Departments > Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Date Deposited: 02 Oct 2013 10:42
Last Modified: 20 Jun 2020 01:45

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