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Exploring the impact of evaluating strategic options in a scenario-based multi-criteria framework

Ram, Camelia and Montibeller, Gilberto (2013) Exploring the impact of evaluating strategic options in a scenario-based multi-criteria framework. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80 (4). pp. 657-672. ISSN 0040-1625

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Identification Number: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.019


One of the least explored aspects of scenario planning is how to assess systematically the value and robustness of strategic options after scenario development. In this context, there is growing research interest on the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate such options, but with very limited evidence about its performance in practice. This paper examines effects of applying in practice one of those recently proposed scenario-based MCDA methods for identifying robust options. Three public sector decision-making instances in Trinidad and Tobago are examined within an action research framework to provide insights on differences in decision-making behaviour and areas for improvement of the method. Findings from these in-depth case studies indicate that the method's main benefit was that it stimulated curiosity on how options might be improved in order to mitigate negative consequences and capitalise on opportunities across scenarios. We conclude the paper by discussing these findings and their implications to the development of the method and the evaluation of strategic options under deep uncertainty. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2013 Elsevier B.V.
Divisions: Management
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Date Deposited: 20 Nov 2012 15:48
Last Modified: 16 May 2024 01:35
Projects: President's Medal scholarship
Funders: Government of Trinidad and Tobago

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