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Is it possible to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C?

Ranger, Nicola and Gohar, L. K. and Lowe, J. A. and Raper, S. C. B. and Bowen, Alex and Ward, Robert E. T. (2012) Is it possible to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C? Climatic Change, 111 (3-4). pp. 973-981. ISSN 0165-0009

Full text not available from this repository.
Identification Number: 10.1007/s10584-012-0414-8

Abstract

This study explores the feasibility of limiting increases in global temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. A probabilistic simple climate model is used to identify emissions paths that offer at least a 50% chance of achieving this goal. We conclude that it is more likely than not that warming would exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, under plausible mitigation scenarios. We have identified three criteria of emissions paths that could meet the 1.5°C goal with a temporary overshoot of no more than 50 years: early and strong reductions in emissions, with global emissions peaking in 2015 and falling to at most 44-48 GtCO 2e in 2020; rapid reductions in annual global emissions after 2020 (of at least 3-4% per year); very low annual global emissions by 2100 (less than 2-4 GtCO 2e) and falling to zero (or below) in the 22nd century. The feasibility of these characteristics is uncertain. We conclude that the proposed date of review of the 1.5°C goal, set at 2015, may be too late to achieve the necessary scaling up of emissions cuts to achieve this goal.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.springer.com/earth+sciences+and+geograp...
Additional Information: © 2012 Crown.
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Q Science > Q Science (General)
Sets: Research centres and groups > Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Date Deposited: 15 Mar 2012 15:00
Last Modified: 28 Mar 2012 14:45
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/42519

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