Testing models of distributive politics using exit polls to measure voter preferences and partisanship

Larcinese, Valentino ORCID: 0000-0002-7780-3093, Snyder, Jr., James M. and Testa, Cecilia (2006) Testing models of distributive politics using exit polls to measure voter preferences and partisanship. . Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, London, UK.

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Abstract

This paper tests various hypotheses about distributive politics by studying the distribution of federal spending across U.S. states over the period 1978-2002. We improve on previous work by using survey data to measure the share of voters in each state that are Democrats, Republicans, and independents, or liberals, conservatives and moderates. We find no evidence for the “swing voter" hypothesis { that is, no significant association between the amount of federal funds a state receives and the fraction of independents or moderates in the state. We also find no evidence for the “battleground state" hypothesis - no significant association between the amount of federal funds and the degree of partisan balance in a state. Modest support is found for the \partisan supporters" hypothesis, which conjectures that politicians will favour areas that contain a large percentage of their core supporters.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/
Additional Information:	© 2006 The author
Divisions:	Government STICERD
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions J Political Science > JK Political institutions (United States) H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
JEL classification:	D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H50 - General D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D78 - Positive Analysis of Policy-Making and Implementation
Date Deposited:	28 Feb 2008
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2024 18:46
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/3605

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