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Conflict and deterrence under strategic risk

Chassang, Sylvain and Padró i Miquel, Gerard (2008) Conflict and deterrence under strategic risk. NBER working papers (13964). NBER, Cambridge, USA.

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We examine the mechanics of deterrence and intervention when fear is a motive for conflict. We contrast results obtained in a complete information setting, where coordination is easy, to those obtained in a setting with strategic risk, where players have different assessments of their environment. These two strategic settings allow us to define and distinguish predatory and preemptive incentives as determinants of conflict. We show that while weapons have an unambiguous deterrent effect under complete information, this does not hold anymore under strategic risk. Rather, we find that increases in weapon stocks can have a non-monotonic effect on the sustainability of peace. We also show that under strategic risk, inequality in military strength can ac- tually facilitate peace and that anticipated peace-keeping interventions may improve incentives for peaceful behavior.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2008 by Sylvain Chassang and Gerard Padro i Miquel
Divisions: Economics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
U Military Science > U Military Science (General)
JEL classification: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory > C72 - Noncooperative Games
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory > C73 - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games; Repeated Games
D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
Date Deposited: 05 Apr 2011 09:01
Last Modified: 16 May 2024 11:47

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