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Inflation dynamics in the US - a nonlinear perspective

Nobay, A. Robert, Paya, Ivan and Peel, David A. (2007) Inflation dynamics in the US - a nonlinear perspective. Financial Markets Group Discussion Papers (601). Financial Markets Group, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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A stylized fact of US inflation dynamics is one of extreme persistence and possible unit root behavior. If so, the implications for macroeconomics and monetary policy are somewhat unpalatable. Our econometric analysis proposes a parsimonious representation of the inflation process, the nonlinear ESTAR, rather than the IMA process with time-varying parameters as in Stock and Watson (2007). The empirical results confirm a number of the key features such as regime changes and implicit Federal Reserve inflation targets. We address the issue of whether the source of the Great Moderation can be ascribed to good luck rather than good policy.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2007 The Authors
Divisions: Financial Markets Group
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General > C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods; Monte Carlo Methods; Bootstrap Methods
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models
Date Deposited: 16 Jul 2009 14:54
Last Modified: 16 May 2024 11:43

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