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A quantilogram approach to evaluating directional predictability

Linton, Oliver and Whang, Yoon-Jae (2003) A quantilogram approach to evaluating directional predictability. Econometrics; EM/2003/463, EM/03/463. Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Identification Number: EM/03/463

Abstract

In this note we propose a simple method of measuring directional predictability and testing for the hypothesis that a given time series has no directional predictability. The test is based on the correlogram of quantile hits. We provide the distribution theory needed to conduct inference, propose some model free upper bound critical values, and apply our methods to stock index return data. The empirical results suggest some directional predictability in returns, especially in mid-range quantiles like 5%-10%.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk
Additional Information: © 2003 the authors
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Sets: Research centres and groups > Financial Markets Group (FMG)
Collections > Economists Online
Departments > Economics
Research centres and groups > Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines (STICERD)
Collections > LSE Financial Markets Group (FMG) Working Papers
Date Deposited: 27 Apr 2007
Last Modified: 27 Feb 2014 15:35
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/2112

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